Florida

Manasota Key Beach

Caspersen's quieter southern cousin. Same Peace River geology offshore, fewer crowds, surprisingly productive at low tide.

⚠ Partial inputs

today

Fair

0.9ft swing · neap tide · low 2:24 PM · 4.1ft swell · 0.17" recent rain · +18 event boost

Today at a glance

Updated 2026-07-20T21:57:18.740Z

Workable but not ideal. Best window opens around the 2:24 PM low (0.6 ft). Moderate S winds (13 mph); seas 4 ft+ — murky and choppy.

Heads up: 4 ft seas — visibility will be poor; consider another day.

Next 3 days: Next few days look steady — all fair-range. Pick whatever fits your schedule.

Best Window Today

2:24 PM

Plan around the fair low-tide window. 0.9ft swing · neap tide · low 2:24 PM · 4.1ft swell · 0.17" recent rain · +18 event boost.

Hunt score

Fair

Astronomical low

0.6 ft

2:24 PM

Predicted real low

0.5 ft

Near NOAA prediction

Low-window wind

2 mph

Light — negligible effect

Tides: NOAA Manasota, Lemon Bay, FL (station 8725809)

Best window this week

Sun, Jul 26 · 8:15 PM

1.8ft swing · low 8:15 PM · ~0.4ft below predicted (offshore wind) · 0.12" recent rain · +18 event boost

Score

Good

Confidence: Partial — noaa tide station, on-site outcomes. Hover the badge above for the input-by-input breakdown.

Tonight's moon

First quarter

44% illuminated

Sunrise 10:48 AM · Sunset 12:25 AM

Wind right now

13 mph from S

Gusts 26 mph · best from W

Wind is cross-shore — neutral effect on tide level.

Past 7 days

Compare model output to your actual visits.

Next 7 days

Plan a trip →

▼ means the forecast wind will likely push the real low below NOAA's prediction (more beach to hunt). ▲ means it will likely sit above the prediction (less beach). Rough rule: ~0.04 ft per mph of sustained wind during the low-tide window.

Tide times: NOAA CO-OPS station 8725809 (Manasota, Lemon Bay, FL) — local time, MLLW datum. Click to verify on NOAA. Cards show LOWS only (best for hunting); highs are visible on the tide curve below.

Tide curve · next 48h

🌤️ Weather & Wave Forecast

Impact on visibility and stir-up over the next 5 days.

Onshore Wind: Pushes water in (tide sits higher) and stirs up the bottom. Good for "new" teeth, bad for visibility.

Offshore Wind: Water blown out (tide sits lower). Maximum beach exposure for hunting the low tide line.

Why today scores 48

The Hunt Score blends tide range, lunar phase, daylight timing, recent stir, wind setup, and surf.

Wave height 4.1 ft

Best low

2:24 PM at 0.6 ft

Predicted real low

0.5 ft

Wind deviation

More beach by 0.1 ft

Explain this scoreShow breakdown ▾

💡

Analysis

Fair. Standard conditions — go for the volume hunt.

Tide range

7.3 / 50

Today's swing is 0.9 ft (saturates at 6 ft = 50 pts).

Spring tide

2.4 / 15

Within ±2 days of a new or full moon = wider swing.

Daylight timing

13.9 / 15

Low in daylight = you can actually hunt.

Recent stir

0.0 / 10

Past 72h onshore wind churn (only counts hours that already happened).

Wind setup at low

0.7 / 10

Forecast wind drains 0.1 ft of water around the low.

Surf bonus

5.0 / 5

1–4 ft of recent surf = clean sorting; >7 ft = unfishable.

Recent rainfall

1.0 / 3

Past 48h rain flushes creek/inlet material onto the strand. ≥0.5" = +3.

Storm multipliermultiplier

1.00×

Peak gust 32 mph — below 25 mph threshold, no boost applied.

Event boostadded

+18

Manual + auto events (storms, drought, beach renourishment).

Why not higher? The biggest unused headroom today is tide range (+42.7 pts available). A day with that maxed out would score around 91.

Show the math

components: 7.3 + 2.4 + 13.9 + 0.0 + 0.7 + 5.0 + 1.0 = 30.2 + event boost +18 = 48.2 final = 48

What's NOT in this score

We are deliberate about which factors to include. These are not currently in the model:

Hunt pressure. A “hunts this week” chip is shown on each location page for transparency, but it does not change the score yet. We need more outcomes per site before a penalty would be statistically meaningful.
Wave period / swell direction. We use wave height only. Long-period groundswell sorts material differently than short wind chop, but Open-Meteo doesn't expose period reliably.
Barometric pressure trend. Falling pressure = approaching storm = building stir. Currently we wait for the wind to actually arrive.
Water temperature, clarity, salinity. Affects comfort but not (directly) what teeth wash up.
Weekday vs weekend. A 70 on Tuesday is often better in practice than a 70 on Saturday because of crowds, but we don't adjust for that.
Beach renourishment. Fresh sand buries everything. We capture this only when an admin logs a manual event — there's no auto-detection.

If you think we should add one of these, log a hunt with notes — every rated outcome helps us decide which signals actually predict tooth count.

Hunt Score

Sum of components + 18 event boost, clamped 0–100.

Score model 2026.04.29 · how this is calculated

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