North Carolina

Topsail Beach

Quiet barrier island that punches above its weight. Pliocene-Pleistocene shell hash washes up along the south end, with consistent finds in winter.

⚠ Partial inputs

today

Good

4.2ft swing · neap tide · low 8:27 PM · post-storm · 4.5ft swell · +15 event boost

Today at a glance

Updated 2026-07-21T08:42:05.552Z

Solid hunting day. Best window opens around the 8:27 PM low (0.9 ft, likely 0.2 ft above NOAA → less beach). Moderate SW winds (11 mph); seas 4 ft+ — murky and choppy.

Heads up: 4 ft seas — visibility will be poor; consider another day.

Next 3 days: Next few days look steady — all good-range. Pick whatever fits your schedule.

Best Window Today

8:27 PM

Plan around the good low-tide window. 4.2ft swing · neap tide · low 8:27 PM · post-storm · 4.5ft swell · +15 event boost.

Hunt score

Good

Astronomical low

0.9 ft

8:27 PM

Predicted real low

1.1 ft

above NOAA by 0.2 ft

Low-window wind

6 mph

Light — negligible effect

Tides: NOAA Ocean City, Fishing Pier, NC (station 8657419)

Best window this week

Mon, Jul 27 · 12:23 PM

4.5ft swing · low 12:23 PM · 0.63" recent rain · +15 event boost

Score

Great

Confidence: Partial — noaa tide station, on-site outcomes. Hover the badge above for the input-by-input breakdown.

Tonight's moon

First quarter

49% illuminated

Sunrise 10:14 AM · Sunset 12:21 AM

Wind right now

11 mph from SW

Gusts 19 mph · best from E

Wind is cross-shore — neutral effect on tide level.

Past 7 days

Compare model output to your actual visits.

Next 7 days

Plan a trip →

Tide times: NOAA CO-OPS station 8657419 (Ocean City, Fishing Pier, NC) — local time, MLLW datum. Click to verify on NOAA. Cards show LOWS only (best for hunting); highs are visible on the tide curve below.

🌤️ Weather & Wave Forecast

Impact on visibility and stir-up over the next 5 days.

Onshore Wind: Pushes water in (tide sits higher) and stirs up the bottom. Good for "new" teeth, bad for visibility.

Offshore Wind: Water blown out (tide sits lower). Maximum beach exposure for hunting the low tide line.

Why today scores 68

The Hunt Score blends tide range, lunar phase, daylight timing, recent stir, wind setup, and surf.

Wave height 4.5 ft

Best low

8:27 PM at 0.9 ft

Predicted real low

1.1 ft

Wind deviation

Less beach by 0.2 ft

Explain this scoreShow breakdown ▾

💡

Analysis

Solid. Reliable productivity expected.

Tide range

34.7 / 50

Today's swing is 4.2 ft (saturates at 6 ft = 50 pts).

Spring tide

1.8 / 15

Within ±2 days of a new or full moon = wider swing.

Daylight timing

6.8 / 15

Low in daylight = you can actually hunt.

Recent stir

0.0 / 10

Past 72h onshore wind churn (only counts hours that already happened).

Wind setup at low

-1.9 / 10

Forecast wind piles 0.2 ft of water around the low.

Surf bonus

5.0 / 5

1–4 ft of recent surf = clean sorting; >7 ft = unfishable.

Recent rainfall

0.0 / 3

No measurable rain in the past 48h — no runoff signal.

Storm multipliermultiplier

1.15×

Peak gust 37 mph triggers post-storm boost.

Event boostadded

+15

Manual + auto events (storms, drought, beach renourishment).

Why not higher? The biggest unused headroom today is tide range (+15.3 pts available). A day with that maxed out would score around 83.

Show the math

components: 34.7 + 1.8 + 6.8 + 0.0 + -1.9 + 5.0 + 0.0 = 46.5 × storm multiplier 1.15 = 53.5 + event boost +15 = 68.5 final = 68

What's NOT in this score

We are deliberate about which factors to include. These are not currently in the model:

Hunt pressure. A “hunts this week” chip is shown on each location page for transparency, but it does not change the score yet. We need more outcomes per site before a penalty would be statistically meaningful.
Wave period / swell direction. We use wave height only. Long-period groundswell sorts material differently than short wind chop, but Open-Meteo doesn't expose period reliably.
Barometric pressure trend. Falling pressure = approaching storm = building stir. Currently we wait for the wind to actually arrive.
Water temperature, clarity, salinity. Affects comfort but not (directly) what teeth wash up.
Weekday vs weekend. A 70 on Tuesday is often better in practice than a 70 on Saturday because of crowds, but we don't adjust for that.
Beach renourishment. Fresh sand buries everything. We capture this only when an admin logs a manual event — there's no auto-detection.

If you think we should add one of these, log a hunt with notes — every rated outcome helps us decide which signals actually predict tooth count.

Hunt Score

Sum of components × 1.15 + 15 event boost, clamped 0–100.

Score model 2026.04.29 · how this is calculated

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